Asset Allocation
Tactical Tilts and Foregone Diversification
April 2, 2014
Topics - Asset Allocation
Lodestone Wealth Note to Investors
Tactical timing may be defined as dynamically changing allocations to two or more assets or strategies (or between a single asset and cash) in an attempt to increase returns. While rebalancing to constant weights already requires some turnover, tactical timing typically involves additional turnover and so any benefit must exceed the additional transaction costs incurred.
Investors tend to forget that tactical timing may incur a further penalty, which relates to forgone diversification. This penalty is larger for assets or strategies with low correlations to each other. So, for example, the penalty is more significant for tilts between stocks and bonds than for tilts between highly correlated equity sectors or countries.
At Lodestone Wealth, we are continuously researching potential indicators of time-varying returns of assets and investment strategies. But we also believe in diversification, and we therefore employ such tactical signals only where, and in such a way that we believe they can overcome the diversification hurdle described in this note.
This document is not intended to, and does not relate specifically to any investment strategy or product that Lodestone Wealth offers. It is being provided merely to provide a framework to assist in the implementation of an investor’s own analysis and an investor’s own view on the topic discussed herein.
This document
has been provided to you solely for information purposes and does not constitute an offer or
solicitation of an offer or any advice or recommendation to purchase any securities or other
financial instruments and may not be construed as such. The factual information set forth herein
has been obtained or derived from sources believed by the author and Lodestone Wealth Management
LLC (“Lodestone Wealth”) to be reliable but it is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not
guaranteed as to its accuracy and is not to be regarded as a representation or warranty, express
or implied, as to the information’s accuracy or completeness, nor should the attached
information serve as the basis of any investment decision. This document is not to be reproduced
or redistributed to any other person. The information set forth herein has been provided to you
as secondary information and should not be the primary source for any investment or allocation
decision. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Diversification does
not eliminate the risk of experiencing investment losses.
This material is not research and should not be treated as research. This paper does not
represent valuation judgments with respect to any financial instrument, issuer, security or
sector that may be described or referenced herein and does not represent a formal or official
view of Lodestone Wealth. The views expressed reflect the current views as of the date hereof
and neither the author nor Lodestone Wealth undertakes to advise you of any changes in the views
expressed herein.
The information contained herein is only as current as of the date indicated, and may be
superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons. Charts and graphs provided herein
are for illustrative purposes only. The information in this presentation has been developed
internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, neither Lodestone
Wealth nor the author guarantees the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information.
Nothing contained herein constitutes investment, legal, tax or other advice nor is it to be
relied on in making an investment or other decision. There can be no assurance that an
investment strategy will be successful. Historic market trends are not reliable indicators of
actual future market behavior or future performance of any particular investment which may
differ materially, and should not be relied upon as such. Diversification does not
eliminate the risk of experiencing investment losses.
The information in this paper may contain projections or other forward-looking statements
regarding future events, targets, forecasts or expectations regarding the strategies described
herein, and is only current as of the date indicated. There is no assurance that such events or
targets will be achieved, and may be significantly different from that shown here. The
information in this document, including statements concerning financial market trends, is based
on current market conditions, which will fluctuate and may be superseded by subsequent market
events or for other reasons.