Factor Timing
Contrarian Factor Timing is Deceptively Difficult (Supplement)
March 21, 2018
Topics - Factor Timing
In Contrarian Factor Timing Is Deceptively Difficult, published in a
2017 special issue of The Journal of Portfolio Management, Richard
Smith, Swati Chandra, Antti Ilmanen, and Ronen
Israel of Lodestone Wealth Trading
address two of the most heated questions for today’s factor investors: how
expensive are the most popular factors now and should we seek time exposure to
them?
Their analysis covers the value, momentum, and defensive factors, also known as
style premia, and reveals that while some of these factors are cheaper or richer
compared to their historical norms, none of them are at extremes. They also do not
find any robust evidence that value-based factor timing can deliver meaningful
outperformance.